From the Observatory
Insights, notes, and second readings.
Working essays on behavioral research, the limits of modeling, and what AI can and cannot tell us about the people on the other end of a decision.
- ·6 min read·Behavioral Science · Methodology
The Observer's Bias: Why Audience Research Misreads Itself
When the lens shapes the subject, the data describes the observer as much as the observed.
Read essay → - ·7 min read·Data · Modeling
Signal, Noise, and the Cost of Confident Models
Models that explain everything explain nothing. The work is in choosing what to leave out.
Read essay → - ·5 min read·AI · Interpretation
What AI Can't See: The Limits of Pattern Without Context
Pattern recognition is not understanding. The gap is where human judgment still earns its keep.
Read essay →